I was among many whose ears pricked up when the triumphant Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, emphasised in her October 2020 election night victory speech that her second term Government will be for "all New Zealanders", and she singled out those who had voted Labour for the first time. This was a less than subtle callout to the former National voters who had jumped aboard the juggernaut that was Labour's quite extraordinary electoral success: "You can trust us, we'll look after your interests, we will administer capitalism better than your old Party, we won't rattle any cages or rock any boats, we are the Party of the status quo and stability".

I'm not saying that this amounts to: "Vote Labour but get National", because there are obvious differences between the two. But they are differences in emphasis, not political ideology or world view. At its worst, Jacinda's reassuring words to Labour's newfound friends means that Labour will hesitate to do anything that will alienate them and, perish the thought, cause them to just as suddenly desert Labour at the next election and go back to their natural home (going from newfound friends to fair weather friends).

That's why I've subtitled this election analysis: "Labour Must Govern For The Many, Not The Few" i.e. not "for all New Zealanders". There are plenty of irreconcilable economic and class interests within a capitalist society and Labour now has the mandate to answer the age-old question: "Which side are you on?" And the answer cannot be: "Everyone's".

Incidentally, I'm fully aware that "for the many, not the few" was the slogan of the UK Labour Party under former Leader Jeremy Corbyn and that it - and he - fared disastrously in the 2019 UK snap election which resulted in a Boris Johnson-led Tory landslide. But British politics in recent years has revolved around the all-consuming British issue of Brexit, to the virtual exclusion of all other considerations and that was what decided that election. There is no equivalent obsession in NZ politics, thank God. And aren't the Poms doing well under Boris. But I digress.

Labour came to power in 2017 promising "transformation" and the simple fact is that SFA has been transformed. So, what explains Labour's own transformation from the Party that "stole" the 2017 election (to quote the Tories and their media mouthpieces at the time) to the Party that achieved its greatest electoral victory since the first Labour electoral victory way back in 1935 and one of the biggest landslides by any party in NZ history?

Jacinda The Superstar

This is what I wrote in my analysis of the 2017 election (Watchdog 146, December 2017): "I'm going to start by doing something unusual, possibly unique, for me - namely, praising a politician. Perhaps I'm going soft in my old age but I think Jacinda is just what it says on the tin. She exudes genuine warmth and humanity. She's a fresh face, a breath of fresh air, and any other cliché including the word 'fresh'".

"She's young and has the confidence of youth. I admire her promise of 'relentless positivity' and I am pleased to see a national leader bring some different values, ones such as kindness, into the political arena. God knows we need something different, because the other ones certainly haven't been working. Labour won this election solely on her personality...".

Jacinda's mana has only continued to grow, both nationally and globally. For all the reasons that have been well canvassed, ranging from having a baby while in office to her superb leadership after the 2019 Christchurch mosques' massacre and throughout the 2020 coronavirus pandemic crisis. She comes across as human, not a politician. She has a whole different style of leadership and people right across the political spectrum respond very well to that.

Likewise, people across the spectrum do not take kindly to condescending personal criticism of her. That was one of the reasons that Simon Bridges got rolled as National's Leader earlier in 2020. And Judith Collins' disastrous election campaign, featuring personal rudeness during the Leaders' Debates, defamation (calling Jacinda a "liar") and constantly calling her "Miss Ardern", just blew up in her face.

The dog whistle behind the latter was to remind people that Jacinda is not married to her partner. Gasp, she's living in sin and is an unmarried mother. And you know what, the New Zealand people don't care. It reminded me of a similar National Leader from 20 years ago, namely Jenny Shipley, who stressed during the 1999 election campaign that she had kids and her opponent, Helen Clark, didn't. Dog whistle - I'm more of a woman than she is. That one didn't work either and Helen Clark went on to have nine years as Prime Minister (Jenny Shipley, by contrast, is on the list of unelected Prime Ministers, with Bill English as the most recent addition).

Saving Lives

Unlike 2017, Labour did not win the 2020 election solely on Jacinda's personality. The primary function of the State is it to keep its people safe. Even better, keep (most of) us alive. The Government did this extremely well during the whole Covid pandemic. Yes, there were mistakes, an element of luck and NZ's remote geographic advantage - but this country showed that it is possible to deal with a national and global threat like this and come out the other side of it to life as normal as possible in these circumstances (the one major change being the indefinitely closed border).

Yes, we lost 25 lives, which is tragic, but a drop in the bucket compared to the great majority of other countries, several of whom are running around like headless chickens (they tend to be the ones "led" by macho men like Trump, Johnson and Bolsonaro). People can see for themselves how much better off we are in comparison to most of the rest of the world. And they can see that elimination is eminently achievable, not merely settling for "mitigating", "suppressing" or "learning to live with" the virus.

Speaking as one of the "vulnerable elderly" with two existing health conditions that make me more in danger if I get the virus, I thank the Government for prioritising public health. I didn't even get a cold last winter, let alone the asthma that I sometimes get. Lockdown and related measures knocked all that stuff on the head and wiped out the annual flu season of sickness and death. Jacinda and Dr Ashley Bloomfield did a superb job of calmly and coherently explaining what was going on every day (I must admit that I didn't watch a single one of their 1 p.m. live TV press conferences. Why? Because I was too busy working i.e. living life as normal. Us working people don't have time for watching daytime TV!).

Prioritising public health by shutting the country down obviously came with a major economic cost, one that all New Zealanders will live with for decades. That's the other thing the Government got right - it did a good job of handling the emergency economic response to the crisis. The wage subsidy was rolled out fast and saved an awful lot of jobs and businesses. In fact, it was too generous, with all sorts of corporate shrewdies running to get a handout from the much-maligned Nanny State.

It went to major corporates that laid off workers, made whopping profits and paid out big dividends to owners. Not only New Zealand capitalists like Briscoes but major transnational corporations (TNCs) like Coca-Cola, McDonald's, Asahi Beverages and Tesla. TNCs are big fans of corporate welfare and one of Judith Collins' major cockups in her campaign (there were plenty) was to promise that a National government would "claw back" the wage subsidy - the capitalist class was alarmed at the prospect of their Party taking back "their" money. What next? Having to pay tax? Increase wages?

Analysing all this at leisure is not a luxury the Government had - it had to act immediately as the country shut down and the economy collapsed within a matter of days (demonstrating the tenuous fragility of globalisation). The wage subsidy was established on the principle of near universality, with the anomalies to be (theoretically) dealt with later. It is the same universality principle that has underpinned national superannuation for old age pensioners (whether rich or poor) for nearly 50 years. And who brought that in? The National government headed by Piggy Muldoon, another true believer in the State having a central role in the economy and society (from an entirely different perspective, namely that of reactionary nationalism).

A different Government may have opted for austerity - cut public spending and services, every person for his or her self. A different Government may have prioritised keeping businesses open over keeping Nana alive. But this one opted for good old fashioned, tried and true Big Government. Money was suddenly no object. Billions were made available for all sorts of things.

Just to give my own personal example - the Winter Energy Payment for old age pensioners was suddenly doubled (next winter I'll have to go back to burning old Watchdogs to keep warm and to cook the mince to put on my toast). There were definitely unjustifiable discrepancies, such as creating a two-tier class of unemployment beneficiaries (those who lost their jobs due to Covid get a higher dole payment than those who were already unemployed).

The key component in the Government's successful Covid response was its partnership with the people. New Zealanders are used to natural disasters - we Christchurch people have lived through 18,000 earthquakes from 2010 until 2020, not to mention ones up the road in Kaikoura. But "resilience" counts for nothing if people don't trust and respect their elected representatives to do the right thing by them. Mutual trust, respect and partnership were defining characteristics of the Covid crisis response.

There were (and are) constant niggles from Opposition politicians, business and their media mouthpieces to open the border, learn to live with it, etc, etc. It was the people who ensured that the Government stayed steady in its policy of New Zealand as a bubble, "the team of five million". People could see for themselves what was working here and what was, catastrophically, not working overseas.

So, the country shut down and closed itself off from the world. And despite the doomsayers and trepidation, it has worked, and better than expected. It is ironic actually. For decades CAFCA has been accused by our ideological opponents of wanting "to cut New Zealand off from the world". I well remember, years ago, doing a long-distance TV interview from the network's Christchurch studio and the interviewer shouting into my earpiece: "Oh, come on, Mr Horton, you don't want New Zealand to be like North Korea, do you?".

Well, here we are, folks, we're now apparently living in North Korea. And not a peep out of the erstwhile ideological champions of the "open society" and neo-liberal globalisation. They're too busy being grateful to Big Government for keeping them alive, in business and in the money. No wonder half a million Tories voted Labour in 2020.

Yes, it was "the Covid election" and National complained that was somehow unfair to them. They were polling at 45% just before the pandemic struck NZ but only polled 25% at the election (the "only poll that counts", as politicians are fond of telling us). The simple, central, fact was that the Government was suddenly faced with a huge crisis and it passed it, by and large, with flying colours. People of all political persuasions recognised that and voted accordingly.

Labour's First Term: Nothing Much To Write Home About

But this is where the praise ends. When we look at what the Government has actually done (apart from responding very well to crises), there is not a lot to report. Certainly not in terms of what it promised in 2017, which was to be "transformational". Plainly the country has not been transformed in any of the areas that Labour highlighted, such as climate change, child poverty or affordable housing (Kiwibuild, anyone?), just to give a few of the more obvious examples.

In some cases, Labour (and the Greens) had the justifiable excuse that the third Party in this political ménage à trois - New Zealand First - acted as a frustrating handbrake. That is not speculation: "handbrake" was the word proudly used by NZ First Leader and Deputy Prime Minister, Winston Peters during the 2020 election campaign. But some failures were very definitely Labour's, and Labour's alone.

New Zealand First, mouthpiece for property speculators and landlords, ruled out the capital gains tax recommended by the Tax Working Group (of which CAFCA founder Bill Rosenberg was a member, in his then-capacity as Economist and Policy Director of the Council of Trade Unions). Well, NZ First is gone now. But Jacinda has ruled out a capital gains tax as long as she is Labour's Leader. Mustn't frighten off the property speculators and landlords. Don't expect affordable housing anytime soon. Likewise, with the Greens' eminently sensible proposal of a wealth tax. Jacinda and Labour categorically ruled it out. Mustn't frighten the rich.

TPPA

From a CAFCA perspective, Labour has been a mixed bag. Here's what I wrote in in my analysis of the 2017 election (Watchdog 146, December 2017), under the subheading "TPPA Betrayal". "The cardinal sin of Rogernomics was betrayal and, although Jacinda's government has only been in office for a very short while at the time of writing, the betrayals have already started".

"I'm talking about the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA). In Opposition, Labour came out against it (although pretty feebly and not very convincingly). Nevertheless, it opposed the TPPA, which certainly surprised and pissed off John Key, who had reason to believe there was bipartisan consensus on supporting 'free trade'. After all, the 1999-08 Labour government had proclaimed the China Free Trade Agreement as the crowning glory of its foreign policy. And it was that same Government which kicked off the process that morphed into the TPPA. When Labour voted against the TPPA in 2016, it was too much for Phil Goff, who had been the Minister who started that process back in 2008 - he crossed the floor to vote with National".

"But no sooner was Jacinda in office than she and David Parker were jetting off overseas to proclaim NZ's support for the TPPA (which is now minus the US) and to urge less gung ho countries to sign it. Parker actually declared that Labour had always been the 'party of free trade' and reminded the country that it had been former Labour PM, Mike Moore, who had gone on to become Director-General of the World Trade Organisation. I would have thought it very unwise for Labour to remind people about Mike Moore in any way, shape or form". (Jane Kelsey's obituary of Mike Moore is in Watchdog 154, August 2020).

"So, having been elected on a platform of opposing the TPPA, Labour blithely turned around and immediately supported it, whilst claiming that it had achieved some 'reforms' to it. The reality soon became apparent when it discovered that it couldn't implement even minor election promises like taxing foreign companies that are granted access to NZ water for virtually nothing, bottle it and export it for profit. Why? Because that would not be allowed under the TPPA (or several other 'free trade' deals that NZ is already signed up to)".

"Just like National governments have never seen a war that they don't want to get NZ signed up to, Labour governments have never seen a 'free trade' deal that they don't want NZ to join. The common denominator is FOMO - fear of missing out. Missing out on what? The possibility of not being allowed to play with the big kids. It is why NZ needs to be truly independent and non-aligned". Sure enough - in November 2020 Jacinda was on hand as New Zealand joined the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a multilateral Asian free trade agreement.

Bluff Smelter & Banks

There is no shortage of other disappointments. As long as CAFCA has been in existence (since the mid 1970s), the Bluff aluminium smelter has been the most glaring example of transnational corporate welfare and its owner, gigantic mining transnational Rio Tinto, has twisted every NZ government, Labour or National, around its little finger. When the 1999-08 Clark Labour government started talking about bringing in an emissions trading scheme, Rio Tinto threatened to close and leave NZ. Labour buckled. The 2008-17 Key/English National government gave it tens of millions of taxpayer dollars as a direct subsidy to stave off its next threat of closing and leaving.

In the 2020 election year Rio actually put an August 2021 date on closing the smelter and quitting NZ. Winston Peters was straight down to Southland to campaign on keeping the smelter open. Not to be outdone, the re-elected Labour government has declared it a "priority" to keep the smelter open for several more years in the name of a "managed transition". And so, Rio Tinto keeps on laughing. "Several more years" takes it out beyond the 2023 election and presents the opportunity to manipulate a future Government.

The Big Four Australian-owned banks are another obvious target for investigation and action by the Government (see my "Banksters Still Living It Up In The Wild West", in Watchdog 152, December 2019). CAFCA joined the chorus of groups and people much more important and respectable than us who called on the Government to follow the example of the (conservative) Australian government and hold a formal Inquiry into exactly those same banks. But Grant Robertson, Minister of Finance, refused to do so. As part of the Covid emergency response, the Reserve Bank temporarily prohibited the banks from paying dividends to their shareholders (which normally sees billions of dollars leaving NZ every year). But the Government has done next to nothing to rein in the banks in its first term.

Changes To Foreign Investment Regime

There is some substantive positive news. This Government recognises that foreign control is not just an issue, it is a problem for New Zealand and they have to do something about that. In contrast, the previous Government did not see it as an issue, let alone a problem, and did nothing about it during its nine years in power. What that "something" is that the Government plans to do, doesn't amount to very much but it's better than nothing and it presented CAFCA with a window of opportunity in the first three years that the Government has been in power.

A whole series of Watchdog articles since the change of Government in 2017 have detailed CAFCA's involvement in the review and amendment of the 2005 Overseas Investment Act (dating from the previous Labour government). I met with the relevant (now former) Minister (Eugenie Sage), was interviewed over the phone by Treasury - both of those events were firsts for CAFCA - and put in a submission to the Treasury review. In 2020 the Government rushed through the Overseas Investment (Urgent Measures) Amendment Act to protect NZ companies and assets from being snapped up by transnational corporate predators in the wake of the global economic crisis caused by the pandemic.

CAFCA had no input into that but we did have into the substantive Overseas Investment Amendment Bill, which is the outcome of the years-long review of the current Act. I refer you to that whole series of 2017-20 Watchdog articles for CAFCA's analysis of features such as the foreign house buyer ban, restrictions on farm land sales to foreigners, the favourable treatment given to transnational forestry corporations, etc.

In 2020 we put in a submission on it. The Bill does contain some features that CAFCA has been advocating for years - for example, the application of a national interest test (which is currently being applied across the board but that is only temporary because of the crisis. It will only apply to certain specified sectors. And the Bill does not define "national interest" - that is left up to the reviewing Ministers).

Another example - the "good character" test will now be applied to the applicant companies themselves, not merely to the individuals owning and/or controlling them. And, for the first time, "not of good character" is defined in the Bill. So, the Amendment Bill does have some definite improvements but its main thrust is to "streamline" and "make more efficient" the application and oversight process for the foreign applicants.

And despite being a priority piece of legislation since this Government came to power, the Bill did not go through before the election, not even close. When CAFCA wrote our submission, the deadline was August 31, 2020. Now, that deadline has been indefinitely extended. It will be interesting to see what priority is accorded this Bill by Labour in its second term.

"CAFCA's report card on the Government 2017-20 on foreign control: 'Made a start but must try harder. Much harder'. And I haven't even touched on other issues of keen concern to CAFCA, such as foreign policy and the US military/intelligence alliance, where this Government's record is truly appalling. I have the greatest admiration for Jacinda as a person and for her style of leadership, which has been world class in crises such as the 2019 Christchurch mosques' massacre and the 2020 coronavirus pandemic".

"She would make a superb wartime leader. But her Government leaves an awful lot to be desired in so many areas, such as foreign control. Too timid is one way of putting it. Gutless is another". I wrote that in Watchdog 153 (April 2020, "Must Try Harder: CAFCA's Report Card On Government & Foreign Control"). In the months since I wrote that, I've seen nothing to make me change my mind. If anything, I'm more apprehensive.

Crisis Exposed Major Systemic Problems

The Covid crisis itself exposed major systemic problems with New Zealand capitalism that Labour has done nothing to fix, nor does it show any signs of doing so. Some of those problems pose a direct threat to both the health and economy of New Zealanders. For example, why is our economy so dependent on foreign workers, whether in tourism, accommodation, fruit picking, farm machinery operators, you name it? Having to import Russian and Ukrainian fishermen brought the virus with them and led to a major spike in cases, including escaping into the community. Why doesn't this country train its own fishermen? Allowing foreign seafarers to crew our coastal shipping services led to another community transmission outbreak. Why aren't coastal shipping jobs reserved for NZ seafarers?

And why doesn't this country make anything itself anymore? Globalisation has been a wonderful sugar hit for capitalists, as long as the world has been open. But when it suddenly shut down, big problems. I'll give you our personal example. Post-lockdown our 1990s' washing machine blew up (with a literal bang). We quickly paid for a new one but had to wait a month for it to be delivered because of "disruption in the supply line from the factory in China". We became temporary customers at our local coin-operated laundromat.

I take a pill daily - this was rationed because NZ doesn't manufacture them and there were virus-caused problems for the Indian manufacturer. New Zealand used to have its own manufacturing sector, which was closed down by the neo-liberal ideologues and all outsourced to overseas cheap labour. We need to reinvent that manufacturing sector and dramatically reduce NZ's over-dependence on unrestricted international tourism as the Big Thing in our economy.

Instead, Labour says NZ will dig its way out of the economic crisis by pouring money into shovel-ready infrastructure projects. That seems a rather 1930s' approach. Build more roads, build more things. Still the same old focus on "growth". And those sorts of jobs are predominantly male - but the vast majority of workers made unemployed by the crisis are women. Where are the new jobs for them?

New Zealand First: Dinosaurs Become Extinct Again

Let's give credit where credit's due, indeed let's state the obvious. Jacinda Ardern and Labour would not have been in power since 2017 if not for Winston Peters. And it is instructive to be reminded of the reason he gave for choosing to go into coalition with Labour in 2017. "During his live TV speech in which he announced his choice of Labour as NZ First's Coalition partner, he said: 'Far too many New Zealanders have come to view today's capitalism, not as their friend, but as their foe'".

"'And they are not all wrong. That is why we believe that capitalism must regain its responsible - its human face. That perception has influenced our negotiations' (Stuff, 20/10/17, "Winston Peters Wants 'Today's Capitalism' To Regain Its 'Human Face').

"Now, Winston Peters is no opponent of capitalism. He just wants capitalism to be 'humanised'. But it is extraordinary that it was him that raised this subject - certainly the mainstream media thought so. Labour certainly never talks about capitalism as such. Jacinda would only venture as far as criticising neo-liberalism (which is the current, failed, fashion within capitalism. See 'Neo-Liberalism Has Failed In NZ, Says Ardern', Press, 13/9/17)".

"This is hardly cutting-edge stuff anymore - God help us, 90s' Tory PM Jim Bolger has publicly renounced neo-liberalism (and bewailed the decline in strength of unions, to boot. Stuff, 21/4/17, 'Jim Bolger Says Neo-Liberalism Has Failed NZ And It's Time To Give Unions The Power Back')".

"So, what an indictment of this Labour government that its only public critic of capitalism is an old Tory warhorse from way back. Perhaps Winston has acquired some of the wisdom that is supposed to come with age. Or maybe it's just guilt" (Watchdog 146, December 2017, subheading "Winston Peters The Anti-Capitalist?").

The ruling class can rest easy. If Winston Peters ever mentioned capitalism again during his three years as Deputy Prime Minister, I'm not aware of it. He certainly didn't do anything about it. I have already mentioned how proud that Peters was about being the "handbrake" on his Labour and Green partners, on everything from electric cars to climate change and a capital gains tax. During the 2020 campaign he took to openly attacking Labour and neither he nor the Greens bothered to conceal their loathing for each other.

But, let's never forget - the so-called experts were wrong with their 2017 predictions that the three-Party Government would not last the distance (Peters had not lasted the distance in his coalitions with both the 1990s' National government and the 2000s' Labour government). Third time around he behaved himself impeccably, even during his six-week stint as Acting PM while Jacinda was on maternity leave. He probably knew it was to be his last dance.

Muldoonist

Peters is an old school Big Government Tory in the mould of his 1970s and 80s' mentor, Piggy Muldoon (Peters was the only MP in the most recent Parliament to actually date back to the Muldoon era. My obituary of Piggy is in Watchdog 71, November 1992). Hence New Zealand First's biggest achievement, the $1 billion Provincial Growth Fund. It was disparaged as a pork barrel but it was just the latest incarnation of regional development, which used to be a staple of both Labour and National governments.

Peters most strongly showed himself to be a Muldoonist in his fierce championing of the NZ/US relationship, be it diplomatic, military or intelligence. He made that clear from as soon as Jacinda appointed him Minister of Foreign Affairs in 2017. To quote myself again, this time wearing my other editorial hat, namely of the Anti-Bases Campaign's Peace Researcher: "Indeed, under the influence of Coalition partner, New Zealand First and its key Ministers, Winston Peters (Deputy PM & Foreign Affairs) and Ron Mark (Defence), this Government has become more pro-American and pro-military than its National predecessor".

"The 2008-17 Key-English government had sniffed the imperial wind and realised that new boots needed to be licked, meaning that National got into bed with the new emperor - China - while still trying to have a dollar each way with the old one (the US). But Labour/New Zealand First still prefer to snuggle up under the increasingly tattered and bedraggled Stars and Stripes. Meaning that serious money gets spent to keep our old imperial masters happy".

"The lead article in Peace Researcher 56 (November 2018) was Keith Locke's 'NZ Creeping More Into The Embrace Of The US Military' and highlighted Ron Mark announcing the spending of $2.3 billion to buy four P8 Poseidon anti-submarine warfare aircraft from giant US transnational corporation Boeing" ("What A Waste Of Bloody Money! Time To Reset Priorities", PR 59, June 2020)".

I wrote that in the lead article in PR 60, November 2020 ("A Deafening Silence On Foreign Policy, Defence & Intelligence"). Mark poured billions into the NZ military and aggressively drove a policy of getting the NZ military actively cooperating with the US military at all levels.

We've learned never to say never about New Zealand First. It has already been ejected from Parliament once before (in 2008, when there was also a scandal about money) and then came back at the next election. I won't miss Ron Mark or Shane Jones, that flatulent windbag who was too enamoured of himself. But I will miss Winston, the wily old fox of New Zealand politics, the last relic of a vanished world. Speaking personally, although I'd never vote for him, I appreciate the Gold Card which I use regularly. And, in 2020, I appreciated his efforts, as Minister of Foreign Affairs, to organise repatriation flights for New Zealanders stranded overseas by the virus. One of those planes brought my wife home from the Philippines.

The Greens: More Beige Than Red

The Greens achieved one unique thing - they are the first junior Party in a coalition Government to actually survive an election and get back into Parliament, something that has eluded the likes of New Zealand First, and the former Alliance and United Future parties (remember them?). The Maori Party, National's partner in the previous Government, has made it back after 2017 electoral oblivion but only with two MPs. It is usually the junior party that cops the flak and serves as a useful whipping boy for the major party. That was certainly the case with the Greens in the 2017-20 Government, even though they weren't the Coalition partner (which was New Zealand First. The Green Ministers were outside Cabinet).

As has been made abundantly clear by commentators, Labour's outright majority (a first since NZ started using the MMP electoral system in 1996) means that they don't need the Greens or anyone else. But Jacinda was happy to offer the Greens a deal which gives them two Ministers - the two Co-Leaders, James Shaw and Marama Davidson. But they're outside Cabinet, as were the four Green Ministers in the 2017-20 Government (plus they had several Under Secretaries). Labour is applying the age old maxim that it's "better to have them inside the tent pissing out than outside the tent pissing in".

So, what did the Greens achieve in the 2017-20 Government? Certainly nothing on the scale of what New Zealand First was able to, ranging from the Provincial Growth Fund to pouring money into the military. Of course, New Zealand First did its utmost to thwart the Greens (that handbrake again). But, really, the hysteria from the Right and its media mouthpieces about the "far Left" Greens was, and is, ludicrous.

It took them from 1996 until 2017 to actually be invited into Government (and then, not as the actual Coalition partner), so they prioritised playing it very safe. James Shaw would not look out of place in the National Party and he showed his class bias with the Green School funding fiasco that very nearly derailed the Green Party's 2020 election campaign.

The Greens' core issue is the environment and the major threat posed to it (and life on Earth) by climate change. They certainly chalked up some wins on the environmental front and James Shaw can be justly proud of getting near-unanimous agreement across the House on the 2019 Zero Carbon Act. But, tackling the really hard part of climate change in NZ - agricultural emissions - has been delayed by political pressure from farmers and the National Party (plus New Zealand First - again).

Farmers, in particular, have demonised the Greens over their policies on things like cleaning up rural waterways. Indeed, Federated Farmers floated the spurious theory (without any evidence) that hitherto National rural voters had "strategically" switched to Labour in 2020 to ensure it wouldn't need the Greens in Government with it. The obvious riposte is: then why didn't those cockies vote National again? That had always been their tried and true method of keeping the Greens (and Labour) out of power.

Green Minister Was In Charge Of OIO (Not Now)

CAFCA's core issue is, of course, foreign control. And one Green MP, Eugenie Sage as Minister for Land Information (and therefore in charge of the Overseas Investment Office [OIO]), was right at the heart of it. Very soon after she took office in 2017, I had a meeting with Eugenie, to discuss the oversight regime for foreign investment. That is the first time in CAFCA's 45 plus years that we have ever been invited to meet with a Minister, albeit one outside Cabinet (I can only think of one Labour MP who has ever asked to meet us. No Labour Ministers ever have. Funnily enough, neither have any National Ministers).

I wrote in Watchdog 153 (April 2020, "Must Try Harder: CAFCA's Report Card On Government & Foreign Control"): "...In July 2019, Minister Sage (a Green MP) rejected an application from mining transnational corporation (TNC) OceanaGold to buy more land in Waihi, expressing concerns about soil contamination, increased carbon emissions and the reservoir's safety - referencing notable international tailings dam failures, including catastrophic ones in Brazil in 2019 and four years earlier... ".

"Her Labour Ministerial colleague, David Clark, approved the application but it was declined, because it required two Ministers to approve it. So, the mining TNC made a new application, which was approved in October 2019 by the Minister of Finance and Associate Minister of Finance (both Labour) ... Just a gentle reminder of who is the senior partner in the Government".

"Eugenie Sage herself has not been blameless when it comes to rubberstamping transnational applicants. The most controversial 2018 land sale approval was that allowing Creswell NZ Ltd (a wholly-owned subsidiary of Chinese-owned Nongfu Spring Co Ltd) to buy an additional six hectares of land at its Otakiri water-bottling export plant in the Bay of Plenty". As Linda Hill wrote in her analysis: 'This was the controversial consent announced by Ministers David Clark (Associate Finance, Labour) and Eugenie Sage (Land Information, Greens) on 12 June 2018, because it met the legal requirements of the Overseas Investment Act despite being contrary to Green Party policy'".

"The most egregious use of the rubber stamp involves standing consents - a process whereby the applicant is given approval to buy a pre-agreed amount of land or make a pre-agreed number of purchases without having to seek OIO permission each time. In September 2019 the Minister for Land Information (Eugenie Sage again) and the Associate Minister of Finance gave a standing consent to Japanese TNC Pan Pac Forest Products Ltd to buy up to 20,000 ha of yet to be identified sensitive land and to make up to 25 transactions before October 2022".

"Undoubtedly this makes for greater bureaucratic efficiency. As Linda Hill wrote, about one of these standing consents: 'This summary at least makes clear that the OIO needs to be kept informed about use of the rubber stamp - afterwards'. This practice sets a very dangerous precedent. Why shouldn't any regular applicant to the OIO apply for a standing consent? They could argue that if it's good enough for a few, why not for the lot? An RNZ report on the 'Green Rush' (24/10/19) says Minister Sage defended the consent, as Pan Pac exports quality timbers, not just logs, and 'has been in NZ since the 1970s'. Note what RNZ calls this practice - a free pass. Very true".

"Eugenie Sage wrote a detailed three-page reply to Maire Leadbeater and Catherine Delahunty (a former Green MP colleague of Eugenie's), defending both standing consents (she specifically rejected the term 'free pass') and Pan Pac itself. She went to some lengths to confirm the deficiencies of the current good character test, namely that it applies only to individuals, not their companies. In a footnote she stated: 'It should be noted that it is possible that changes to the good character requirements in the Act could be considered as part of the wider 'Phase II' review of the Overseas Investment Act that is currently underway'".

"She concluded: 'In summary, I remain satisfied that Pan Pac has fulfilled all criteria which applied to its application for a standing consent under the special forestry test' (4/11/19). In both the cases of Pan Pac and Creswell (the water bottling plant), Sage showed herself beholden to the laissez faire rules that govern foreign investment, with no hint that she or the Greens are committed to changing them, let alone improving them".

In Eugenie's defence, the good character requirements in the Overseas Investment Amendment Bill have been considerably improved, as CAFCA has been urging for decades. But that Bill is not yet law. And Eugenie is no longer a Minister, just a rank and file Green MP again. Labour's Damien O'Connor is the new Minister for Land Information (and thus in charge of the OIO). I don't expect to be invited to meet him.

Wearing my Anti-Bases Campaign hat, ABC has had an activist relationship with the Greens ever since they first entered Parliament in 1996 and every Co-Leader (bar James Shaw) has spoken at one or more of ABC's Waihopai spy base protests during that nearly quarter of a century. That close relationship continues until today. It was particularly noteworthy that Marama Davidson spoke at the 2018 Waihopai protest, the first time that the Co-Leader of a Party in Government has done so. Not to mention the number of Green MPs who have spoken at Waihopai and taken part in the protests, including when they have been in Government.

National: Bluebloodbath

I must confess that I didn't pay much attention to National for most of 2017-20. I mean, they were the Opposition, so why would you bother. But it's worth remembering that they "won" the 2017 election on the day, finishing as the single biggest party by a decent margin. But "single" is the operative word - MMP requires negotiations and coalition-building. Labour put together a three-Party Government that outnumbered National. That led to bellowing outrage from the born to rule Tories and their business mates and media mouthpieces that the election had been "stolen by the losers". That resentment festered for a long time, despite them being the single biggest party in Parliament throughout their three years in Opposition.

Poor old Bill English. He led National in two elections, 15 years apart, and lost both of them. He never became an elected Prime Minister. He still holds the record for National's worst ever election result, in 2002 with just over 20% of the party vote - worse even than Judith Collins' 2020 drubbing. You can read my analysis of the 2002 election in Watchdog 100 (August 2002, 'Righto! An Even More 'Business Friendly' Government").

But the fact of the matter is that National, under Simon Bridges, was routinely heading the polls and polling in the mid 40s right up until the pandemic engulfed NZ and the world in early 2020. The polls were reflecting public disillusionment with Labour's failure to deliver on key promises (such as affordable housing) and because of the persistent myth that National is the party that knows best how to run the economy. As I've already detailed above, Labour's response to that crisis - both in terms of health and the economy - changed everything and tipped the polls on their head. Otherwise, this article would have been analysing a Government change from Labour to National (something I last did in relation to the 2008 election).

In 2020 Labour was clearly seen by the New Zealand people as the positive, competent and decisive Party. National, to the chagrin of its born to rule loyalists, was correctly seen as none of these things. National fell apart in spectacular fashion in election year but the rot had started much earlier, with the quite astonishing 2018 saga kicked off by the Jami Lee Ross revelations about Party fundraising and corruption (Ross was voted out at the 2020 election and I'm not going to waste my time writing about the looney "party" with which he chose to associate himself. They didn't make it into Parliament, which is a testament to the good sense and bullshit aversion of the voting public).

Personal sleaze scandals involving several National MPs in 2020 continued the trend. Post-election, any number of chastened National MPs (and suddenly ex-MPs) publicly said that they couldn't blame people for not voting for a Party that gave every appearance of not being able to organise a pissup in a brewery. Three leadership changes within a few months told its own story. And although Judith Collins tried to present herself as a changed person (such as gratuitous displays of religiosity), her actions betrayed that she was still the leading exponent of the same old "dirty politics".

Nicky Hager's book of that title (reviewed by Jeremy Agar in Watchdog 137, December 2014) forced Collins out of John Key's Cabinet and she has never forgiven Nicky. "He is a dreadful man and what he wrote about me was disgraceful," Collins said. "He still needs to meet his maker" (RNZ,Morning Report, 30/9/20). She denied that was any kind of threat and refused to apologise. The closer she got to election day the more desperate she got, with possibly the death blow being her ascribing obesity to personal failure.

But it wasn't a sudden political swing by fatties that did for National, nor was it the shambolic leadership by Collins (and her immediate predecessors). After all, Labour won the 2017 election despite having changed leadership (to Jacinda) just weeks beforehand. National really had nothing to offer and hasn't had for years. Tax cuts, anyone? If that tired old appeal to the individual over the collective had been in place in 2020, then where would the billions have come from to save New Zealand's capitalist economy?

From the market, the private sector? I think not. It was Big Government that kept the economy afloat during the crisis. And from where does the State get its money? From taxes, at rates that are hardly onerous by global standards. The simple fact is that huge numbers of people, across the political spectrum, saw that Labour was doing a better job of running the show. One stunning, unprecedented, fact is that National lost the party vote in every single electorate except Epsom (held by Act Leader David Seymour). Think of that - all those true-blue safe Tory rural electorates gave their party vote to Labour (even Judith Collins' own constituents did so).

That's not to say that National is finished. Post-election, Collins pointed out that, despite having its worst ever result in 2002, National nearly won the 2005 election. That was under a new Leader, Don Brash, who introduced a potent shot of racism into the Party's message. Fortunately for NZ, Nicky Hager's "The Hollow Men" (reviewed by Jeremy Agar in Watchdog 114, May 2007) forced Brash to resign.

John Key became the new Leader and won the 2008 election. So long as the two major Parties compete only on the central ground of which one of them is the best to administer capitalism, with no intention to actually change anything systemic, then they will continue to swap Government between each other. The key difference between the two for the last few decades has who has the most charismatic leader, ranging from David Lange to John Key and on to Jacinda.

Act: Mr Bean Gets A Gun

In my analysis of the 2017 election, this is all I said about National's Mini Me: "Act's David Seymour, who sits in Parliament solely by dint of a grace and favour arrangement with National, can be best described as the bobble head doll in the back window of National's Crown limo". Obviously that situation changed in 2020, where Act picked up the biggest number of MPs it has had in years.

I would say that National will be now regretting that grace and favour arrangement, whereby they have gifted Epsom to Act (i.e. Seymour) for a long time now. That provided Seymour a platform from which to rebuild the Party and cannibalise a significant chunk of hard-core Rightwing voters away from National (by contrast Labour did not gift Auckland Central to the Greens' Chloe Swarbrick. She won it by her own hard work).

Seymour is a disingenuous Mr Bean-type character with a constant smile and a penchant for publicity stunts. Driving the euthanasia referendum campaign also gave him a national profile that he would not have otherwise had, and that campaign attracted support from across the political spectrum. Beneath that smiley exterior he is driving the same old Act agenda of "small Government; private sector good, public sector bad". That was the credo when it was founded in the 90s by Roger Douglas and his mates from the 1980s' Rogernomics era.

It has been all over the place in the ensuing decades, with Leaders including Richard Prebble, Rodney Hide and John Banks (not to mention our old mate, Don Brash). At one time it was the law and order party, championing migrant dairy owners who had been the victims of crime. As Key's Coalition partner it sneaked in charter schools.

Now it seems to have become the gun lobby's party. Seymour was the single solitary MP to vote against the 2019 law banning the type of weapons used in the Christchurch mosques' massacre. It has picked up members out of the gun lobby's resentment at the gun ban/buy back programme that followed the law change. That lobby's spokesperson is now one of Act's new MPs. It will be interesting to see how they go. The last one-man band to unexpectedly bring in a whole lot of new and unknown MPs was Peter Dunne at the 2002 election and that United Future Party duly fell to bits.

Maori Party: Lesson Learnt?

I wrote in 2017: "And I had been predicting for several elections that the Maori Party was on the downward spiral to electoral oblivion due to its Coalition with National, despite the great majority of Maori voters consistently backing Labour. That electoral oblivion came in 2017". In 2020 the Maori Party staged a small comeback of sorts. It won one Maori seat and got two MPs due to its share of the party vote. The Party leaders who sat in Coalition with National are gone and the new Co-Leaders (its two MPs) have made it plain that they want to work with Labour.

The Real Battle Is Outside Parliament

We wish this Government well but we have no great expectations of it. We are under no illusions that it will do anything to rock the good ship capitalism. I wrote this about the 2002 election (another one which Labour won; CAFCA has seen several Labour governments come and go in our 45+ years). It is as true today as it was then: "We (CAFCA) have never entertained any illusions about Parliamentarism nor have we put much stock in whatever party has been in power. Our concern is with who owns and operates New Zealand, not those whose job it is to wave them through the traffic lights. The real battle is, and always has been, outside Parliament and that is where we focus our attention. So, let's get on with it".