torfridaw@outlook.com

In September 2022 the bad news came thick n fast - "World On Brink Of Disastrous Tipping Points" and "UN Finds No Credible Pathway To 1.5 In Place" (Guardian, 8/9/22). We have three to four years to get global emissions down for a liveable world. The scientists say we're heading for 2+ degrees and many of us now think all we can do is plan how to adapt to this and try to maximise survival.

How to wake people up to this urgency? Stop the traffic in Transmission Gully? Get heaps of petition signatures? Focus on the positive so people don't get depressed? Blow up a pipeline? Maybe it doesn't matter that none of this has so far worked, that thousands of people haven't crowded the streets to join us in civil disobedience demanding coal mines be closed and the national dairy herd be halved.

Or that the committed, persistent mahi of so many social justice campaigners has not made an appreciable dent in Aotearoa's appalling rich/poor gap, housing insecurity or regressive taxation system. Or that co-governance through the pathway of He Puapua and Matike Mai still seems decades away. The reasons I'm guessing that this probably doesn't matter is because:

1. No politician right now could persuade the public to accept the type and degree of radical change we need to adapt to the near future. Changes like a planned ongoing reduction in energy consumption using a rationing system and re-nationalisation of the energy sector. And a shift from an economy based on private property rights to one where the common good overrides such rights.
2. It seems quite conceivable that within the next three to four years the climate/economic/social tipping points racing towards us will force any Government in power to declare a civil emergency. In which case they will bring in the sort of changes described above anyway. It's how Governments manage disaster. Business as usual stops. The team of five million emerges.

A Collective Vision And Plan Of Action

I think much of the general population doesn't need to "wake up" - they are not asleep, they're avoiding looking ahead to the future, often from a sense of powerlessness and too much other immediate stress. What's most needed right now is for those who do have a collective vision of how society could be positively transformed to come together and present this vision, along with a clear plan of action for achieving it. There are so many of us already working on a practical vision for a survivable future.

• Those exploring "degrowth" and "energy descent", coming up with fair and practical ways to change the financial, tax and budgeting systems to support a steady-state economy and declining energy usage, without social collapse or perpetuating hardship.
• Those at the pointy end of this hardship, fighting for the rights of all people to income and housing security, defining what this looks like - like a guaranteed basic income, housing security and free public services (health, education, transport, Internet, power...). And progressive taxation reforms to make these affordable.
• Those fighting for Te Tiriti justice and mana whenua and for a constitutional transformation to replace the dominant voices of the big vested interests with better ways of doing democracy, like people's assemblies.
• The eco-warriors out planting, trapping, mapping and protecting what we have left of our native bush, wetlands, biodiversity - our precious carbon sink in the coming heat - and teaching the kids how.
• The gardeners, farmers, permaculturists, all those working to prepare us for localised food security, urban farms - and teaching the kids how.
• All those working on better ways for us to live and work together, move around, build towns and infrastructure for when the cheap fuel and imported supplies run out and it's too hot to do much.

Let's Talk About How We Build This Movement For Radical Change

Restore Passenger Rail's traffic stoppages have sparked fierce debate among activists over what works. Is this "adventurism", action for action's sake, unconnected to any campaign? Or is it a strategy of rolling pressure to build public support for stronger Government action? Is it a radical flank that will create a backlash, or one that will make the middle ground more acceptable? Will it create legal precedents that make it easier or harder for other activists and their campaigns?

Such debates feel productive, so long as we can listen to one another with respect and curiosity. We have been working away in our siloed campaigns with little examination of anyone's "theory of change" or reason for one tactic over another. We have such a short time now to come together in a coalition of progressive organisations and individuals, and to thrash out a collective set of proposals for radical change that will make sense to the general public.

What To Watch

We want to create more spaces for these discussions. To this end the Pathway to Survival group has been inviting people with exciting visions and ideas to present them in a webinar. They're recorded and stored on the Pathway's Youtube channel. So far, they include:

• John Minto & Jason Hickel - "Using Less And Sharing It More Fairly" & the taxation reform campaign
• Catherine Murupaenga Ikenn - "Why Should Climate Activists Care About Te Tiriti?"
• Mike Joy - "Peak Everything - What Does That Mean For Food And Energy Futures?"
• Te Wehi Ratana, Cally O'Neill & Ashleigh Sagar - "Te Tiriti-Based People's Assemblies - Doing Democracy Better"

For upcoming Webinars check the Pathway to Survival website or Facebook for updates.