Watchdog doesn't usually write about elections until after they're over. I wrote this for Covert Action Magazine an online US publication. Thus, it was written for an American audience. It is more suited to Anti-Bases Campaign's Peace Researcher than Watchdog, but the next issue of PR is not until November 2023, i.e., after the election. This demand by Te Pāti Māori is one with which CAFCA fully agrees, so I'll break our usual rule and publish an election article in advance of the election.

New Zealand's triennial general election is on October 14. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced that date in the same January 2023 speech in which she made the shock announcement that she was resigning as PM, and from Parliament and politics completely (she stepped down as PM in February and from Parliament in April. She has now effectively vanished from public life). For a variety of reasons that I won't go into here, she had gone from being her Government's greatest asset to being a liability. And her heart was no longer in it. In June 2023 her successors in Government rewarded her by anointing her as Dame Jacinda Ardern, "for services to the State".

Her successor as Labour Party leader and, hence, Prime Minister, is Chris Hipkins, who was unopposed, so the succession process was remarkably quick and harmonious (which was certainly not the case in previous Labour leadership changes). Hipkins thus took over just eight months before the election.

The historical odds are against him. In my lifetime (72 years) there have been several such unelected Prime Ministers from both rival governing parties (Labour and National). By unelected, I mean that they're being Prime Minister was not endorsed by popular vote in an election won by their party. In every single case, Governments headed by these unelected Prime Ministers have lost the first general election after they got the job - most recently in 2017.

NZ General Elections Are Fairly Prosaic Affairs

Hipkins wasted no time having what was dubbed "the bonfire of the policies", dumping the more aspirational policies of Jacinda Ardern (she became globally famous largely because of her acclaimed responses to events not of her doing e.g., the 2019 Christchurch mosques' massacre and the covid pandemic. Policies that were of her doing produced much more modest or non-existent outcomes).

Hipkins proclaimed that all of his Labour government's efforts would be directed at "bread and butter issues", in response to the cost of living crisis (one in which New Zealand is in company with the rest of the world). This is familiar territory for NZ elections, and one in which the Opposition National Party (which has been in Government more than Labour during my lifetime) fancies its chances as the self-proclaimed party that can "manage the economy better".

At the 2020 election - the covid election - something unique happened in NZ's modern political history, the era of proportional representation. Labour won an outright majority, meaning that it needed no coalition partner (its 2017-20 partner New Zealand First was voted out of Parliament). Hundreds of thousands of National voters switched to Labour. The media quoted people as saying "I voted for Jacinda because she saved my life".

Labour had an absolute mandate for its 2020-23 term, unheard of under a proportional representation system. It didn't need any partners but it invited the Green Party Co-Leaders to both be Ministers outside Cabinet (James Shaw holds the extremely important climate change portfolio). But, despite having secured more than 50% of the 2020 election vote (something rarely ever achieved under the old "winner takes all" electoral system), the Ardern government sat on its hands, disappointing those who had voted for it expecting change.

One example - despite the recommendations of a body that it had appointed (headed by Michael Cullen, a former Labour Minister of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister), Ardern refused to make any changes to taxes, specifically ruling out a capital gains tax, wealth tax or inheritance tax. This in an economy dominated by soaring house prices, making buying a home severely unaffordable, particularly for first home buyers. National, on the other hand, offers tax cuts as it's solution to every problem.

Something Different This Time Around

All indications are for an election focussed on the cost of living, which is the norm. Issues like defence, foreign policy or intelligence rarely get a look in from one election to the next. But one Parliamentary party has put those issues front and centre for the 2023 election. There are five parties in Parliament. The smallest is Te Pāti Māori (the Māori Party). Out of a total of 120 Members of Parliament, it has two MPs (it's Co-Leaders), plus it has recently succeeded in luring a Māori Labour MP, a Minister outside Cabinet, to cross the floor and join it. So, three MPs.

Historically, Labour has had a very strong bond with Māori. The present Labour government has the biggest number of Māori MPs and Cabinet Ministers in NZ history. Te Pāti Māori was formed out of dissatisfaction with the previous (1999-2008) Labour government, in the 2000s, and was initially headed by an MP who had been a Labour Minister. Under her leadership Te Pāti Māori enabled National to form a Government (2008-17). It was punished by voters for doing this and was voted out of Parliament in 2017, coming back with two MPs in 2020.

Opinion polls have consistently picked the 2023 election to be tight (some have Labour ahead, others have National). But there will be no 50%+ mandate this year; 2020 was a one-off. And polls have consistently predicted that Te Pāti Māori will play a post-election kingmaker role in forming a coalition - but only with Labour and the Greens; National has ruled out working with it.

"We Will No Longer Act As A Pacific Spy Base For The Five Eyes Alliance"

This is where it gets interesting - Te Pāti Māori is very different from its earlier Parliamentary incarnation. In February 2023 it announced its new defence, intelligence and foreign policy, which completely differentiates it from the four other larger parties in Parliament: "Te Pāti Māori says a 'transformative' defence and foreign affairs policy will see its MPs vote against overseas military support, by New Zealand forces. Co-Leaders Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and Rawiri Waititi unveiled the neutrality policy during their Annual General Meeting... if in power, they would withdraw from the Five Eyes security pact between Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the UK and the US".

"'We will no longer be a political football in the wars of imperial powers. We will no longer act as a Pacific spy base for the Five Eyes Alliance', Waititi said. 'We have determined a Māori-centric foreign policy and a Māori-centric defence policy shaped for us and by us without selling or trading our mana by just simply asserting it', Ngarewa-Packer said.

"The Time For War, Killing And Imperialism Is Over"

"Waititi said the party's aspiration was for Aotearoa to adopt neutrality policies similar to Switzerland. 'In 1987 Aotearoa declared we were nuclear-free. Te Pāti Māori now declares Aotearoa must be militarily neutral, a Switzerland of the South Pacific', Waititi said. 'Kudos was all the Māori Battalion got for its victories against Nazi Germany in World War II,' Waititi said.

"'Our services were honoured by us not receiving any allotments to returned services housing or farms. Our services dispensed in Korea, Malaya, Vietnam and Afghanistan achieved nothing for us as a people', Waititi said. 'We will no longer have our sovereignty determined by others, whether it is in Canberra, London, Washington, Beijing or Moscow'".

"The party took heat from Ukrainian expatriates last year when Waititi claimed the Russian invasion of Ukraine was caused by the 'politics of America, NATO, and other countries', a popular Kremlin talking point. Ngarewa-Packer says Aotearoa should still 'stand alongside indigenous peoples in their fight for their sovereignty over their own lands' and it supported the Government's sanctions bill against Russia last year".

"The party would still fund a defence force but it would be a 'support force for the Pacific, for our Polynesian world', and to tackle civil defence emergencies, according to Ngarewa-Packer. 'With the extreme weather events of the past few weeks (i.e., major floods and a very destructive cyclone. MH), we've seen just how important it is that our defence force is focused on responding to threats to our own people', she said". 'The time for war, killing and imperialism is over. Now is the time for peace and sovereignty for tangata whenua and indigenous peoples around the world. Aotearoa must be friends to everybody and enemies to nobody'" (Te Ao Māori News 9/2/23).

The significance of this position being declared by a Māori political party cannot be overstated. Māori make up a significant chunk of the NZ military, and have a legendary history within it. It is very unusual, if not unprecedented, for any New Zealand Parliamentary party to publicly use words like "imperialism". And it is even more unprecedented for a party to openly state that NZ quitting the Five Eyes alliance is one of its several conditions for joining a post-election coalition.

(Five Eyes - made up of the electronic intelligence agencies of the US, UK, Canada, Australia and NZ - dates back to the post-WW2 aftermath. NZ is definitely the smallest of the Eyes. Its' main contribution, since the 1980s, is the Waihopai spy base, operated by the NZ Government Communications Security Bureau. Five Eyes has steadily expanded its mandate in recent years, becoming much more of a comprehensive political and military bloc).

Demand For Military Neutrality

Te Pāti Māori President John Tamihere spelled out the party's conditions for being a coalition partner in a May 2023 mainstream media interview: "And the one which will scare lots of horses is his demand for military neutrality. This, he says, means 'being a friend to everyone and an enemy to no-one', and acting only to defend our own territory and act as a peacekeeper, but no longer being part of the Five Eyes spying compact with the US, UK, Canada and Australia, or, in his eyes, kowtowing to Australia's military decisions".

"And the Chinese? He's got no problems there. They are a good trading partner; he wants Huawei here to provide telecoms competition (he has a thing about the cost of duopolies on the working man); doesn't worry about them spying given how the whistleblower Edward Snowden showed how the CIA has a propensity to spy just as much on its friends as its enemies" (Press, 12/5/23, Steve Kilgallon).

Hipkins Defends Five Eyes

Not surprisingly, the Labour government has reacted negatively to Te Pāti Māori's coalition conditions. Prime Minister Chris Hipkins said: "'Smaller parties, I think, need to be careful with whatever they issue in terms of 'bottom lines' or they could find themselves simply not able to be part of any governing arrangement at all'. In regard to leaving the Five Eyes, the Prime Minister said that would be a bad and risky idea".

"To withdraw from the intelligence alliance 'would have potential consequences for Kiwis on a daily basis', he said. This intelligence alliance, between New Zealand, the UK, Canada, US and Australia, was needed to protect the electricity grid, phone and Internet services, he said. 'I don't think it would be in New Zealand's best interests to withdraw from the Five Eyes'" (Stuff, 12/5/23, Glenn McConnell).

Greens Have Honourable Activist History On Five Eyes

It needs to be pointed out that the Green Party, which has more MPS than Te Pāti Māori (currently nine) and has been in Parliament continuously since 1996, also has progressive policies on defence, intelligence and foreign policy. I'm the Organiser for the Anti-Bases Campaign, which has held protests at the Waihopai spy base virtually every year since 1988.

We have had every Green Co-Leader bar one to speak at those protests; there has only been one year since the Greens entered Parliament that we haven't had a Green MP as a speaker at the base gate (and that was due to ill health). The most recent one to join us was also happy to join those climbing the outer fence to plant placards on the base grounds. When he spoke at the February 2023 protest, he talked about "American imperialism", a phrase you'll never hear from any Labour MP. But the Greens have never stated that quitting Five Eyes (or anything else to do with intelligence, defence or foreign policy) is a condition for them joining, or supporting, a Labour government.

It remains to be seen if anything comes from this coalition dealmaking situation. But then again, momentous changes have to start somewhere. Fifty years ago, the idea of New Zealand declaring itself nuclear free, by law, seemed preposterous. There was a monumental campaign - and the country has been nuclear free since the late 1980s.

2014: The Election Where Spying Was An Issue

As a post-script: there was one very recent NZ election - 2014 - where spying was a campaign issue. Here's a very brief summary. A German/American billionaire, Kim Dotcom, came to NZ in 2010 under a fast track immigration "investor plus" immigration scheme (someone who had invested $NZ10 million in NZ). His company, Megaupload, was a leading player of the file sharing phase of the Internet. But the US tech moguls of the time cried foul, claiming that Megaupload was just one big copyright violation.

They wanted to get Dotcom, and the US government went after him. In 2012 NZ's very obliging National government mounted a spectacular US-style Police raid (using the anti-terrorism Special Tactics Group, involving 76 cops and two helicopters) on Dotcom's multi-million-dollar rental mansion. Dotcom and several of his Megaupload executives faced extradition proceedings to answer to US indictments.

This is where it gets interesting. During the court proceedings it was let slip by the Police that the Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB), NZ's partner agency in Five Eyes, had been spying on Dotcom in the lead up to the Police raid. By law the GCSB was not allowed to spy on NZ citizens or permanent residents (Dotcom was a permanent resident). The then Prime Minister, John Key, publicly apologised to Dotcom in 2012.

But did the Government punish the GCSB for its crime? No, it rewarded the criminals and changed the law to make it legal for the GCSB to spy on New Zealanders. In 2013 tens of thousands of people marched against the GCSB Bill but it sneaked into law by the narrowest of margins. At the 2014 election Dotcom founded his own political party and formed an alliance with an existing party which had one MP already in Parliament.

For A Brief Period, The Eyes Of The World Were On NZ

"An international all-star lineup of the White House's most-loathed shared a stage in New Zealand's largest city for a rally billed by the event's host, Kim Dotcom, as the Moment of Truth. Bathed in red and white lights and cheered on by a capacity audience of about 1,500 at the Auckland Town Hall, the Internet entrepreneur turned political party founder sat alongside journalist Glenn Greenwald at a table emblazoned, in case there was any doubt, with the words the Moment of Truth".

"On the big screen above, Greenwald's source, US National Security Agency whistleblower Edward Snowden, was beamed in live from Moscow, while fellow fugitive Julian Assange peered from a screen beside him, also beamed in live from the Ecuadorian Embassy in London. All were given thundering ovations from a crowd who, five days away from New Zealand's general election, were energised by articles published hours earlier by Greenwald and Snowden alleging mass surveillance in New Zealand and duplicity on the part of the Prime Minister, John Key" (Guardian, 15/9/14).

But that was very much an outlier. Despite having made the largest personal contribution to a political party in NZ's history, Dotcom's party got less than 1.5% of the vote in the 2014 election. It no longer exists. Nor does the party with which it aligned, as the latter's sole MP was voted out. And the issue of spying (let alone foreign policy or military policy) has not featured in any subsequent election campaign. As for Dotcom, he is still in NZ, living a very comfortable life on bail, awaiting the final decision from the Minister of Immigration on his extradition to the US to stand trial (having lost every court case in NZ).

In June 2023, the last two Megaupload executives to face court were sentenced to prison in NZ, having done a deal to avoid extradition to the US. They pleaded guilty to charges of participating in an organised criminal group, conspiring to cause loss by deception and conspiring to dishonestly obtaining documents. The prosecutor said the case dwarfed any other fraud case in NZ's history and that if Dotcom had stood trial in NZ and been convicted, he would have called for a sentence of at least 16 years in prison.